Search results for " Selection"

Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models

2011

Abstract This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection crite…

Health-related quality of life in elderly cancer patients, elderly non-cancer patients and an elderly general population

2009

Health-related quality of life (QoL) is a major topic within the care for cancer patients (CP). Compared with the general population (GP), QoL of CP is worse in most dimensions; however, only few data comparing QoL of CP with that of other patients have been provided so far. We determined QoL with the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30 questionnaire in hospitalized patients aged 60 years and older: 195 CP and 130 patients treated for other medical disorders (MP). In addition, data were compared with an age- and gender-stratified German GP. Explorative statistical analyses were performed. The CP aged >or=70 years compared with those aged 60-69 years had decrea…

Penalized regression and clustering in high-dimensional data

The main goal of this Thesis is to describe numerous statistical techniques that deal with high-dimensional genomic data. The Thesis begins with a review of the literature on penalized regression models, with particular attention to least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) or L1-penalty methods. L1 logistic/multinomial regression models are used for variable selection and discriminant analysis with a binary/categorical response variable. The Thesis discusses and compares several methods that are commonly utilized in genetics, and introduces new strategies to select markers according to their informative content and to discriminate clusters by offering reduced panels for popul…

Does the addition of single joint exercises to a resistance training program improve changes in performance and anthropometric measures in untrained …

2018

The present study compared changes in muscle performance and anthropometric measures in young men performing resistance training (RT) programs composed of only multi joint (MJ) exercises, or with the addition of single joint (SJ) exercises (MJ+SJ). Twenty untrained men were randomized to MJ or MJ+SJ groups for 8 weeks. Both groups performed the same MJ exercises. The difference was that the MJ+SJ group added SJ exercises for upper and lower limbs. Participants were tested for 10 repetitions maximum (10RM), flexed arm circumference, and biceps and triceps skinfolds. Both groups significantly increased 10RM load for the bench press (MJ 38.5%, MJ+SJ 40.1%), elbow extension (MJ 28.7%, MJ+SJ 31.…

Not all sex ratios are equal : the Fisher condition, parental care and sexual selection

2017

The term ‘sex roles’ encapsulates male–female differences in mate searching, competitive traits that increase mating/fertilization opportunities, choosiness about mates and parental care. Theoretical models suggest that biased sex ratios drive the evolution of sex roles. To model sex role evolution, it is essential to note that in most sexually reproducing species (haplodiploid insects are an exception), each offspring has one father and one mother. Consequently, the total number of offspring produced by each sex is identical, so the mean number of offspring produced by individuals of each sex depends on the sex ratio (Fisher condition). Similarly, the total number of heterosexual matings …

How challenging RADseq data turned out to favor coalescent-based species tree inference. A case study in Aichryson (Crassulaceae)

2022

Analysing multiple genomic regions while incorporating detection and qualification of discordance among regions has become standard for understanding phylogenetic relationships. In plants, which usually have comparatively large genomes, this is feasible by the combination of reduced-representation library (RRL) methods and high-throughput sequencing enabling the cost effective acquisition of genomic data for thousands of loci from hundreds of samples. One popular RRL method is RADseq. A major disadvantage of established RADseq approaches is the rather short fragment and sequencing range, leading to loci of little individual phylogenetic information. This issue hampers the application of coa…

Out in the open : behavior’s effect on predation risk and thermoregulation by aposematic caterpillars

2020

Abstract Warning coloration should be under strong stabilizing selection but often displays considerable intraspecific variation. Opposing selection on color by predators and temperature is one potential explanation for this seeming paradox. Despite the importance of behavior for both predator avoidance and thermoregulation, its role in mediating selection by predators and temperature on warning coloration has received little attention. Wood tiger moth caterpillars, Arctia plantaginis, have aposematic coloration, an orange patch on the black body. The size of the orange patch varies considerably: individuals with larger patches are safer from predators, but having a small patch is beneficia…

Temperature differences associated with colour do not determine where the acorn ant Temnothorax crassispinus (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) chooses to nest

2021

Temperature is an important factor for invertebrates. Social insects build nests, which along with their ability to thermoregulate, provide shelter from extreme temperatures. However, for many species of ants the most common method of controlling the temperature inside a nest is to choose a suitable nest site. During a fi eld experiment, the choice of nest site by the acorn ant Temnothorax crassispinus, a species which lives in coniferous and mixed forests, was studied. It typically occupies ephemeral nest sites and can move to a new nest site several times in one season. It was predicted that in early spring, dark coloured nest sites would be warmer and thus more frequently occupied by ant…

Overestimation of the strength of size-assortative pairing in taxa with cryptic diversity: a case of Simpson's paradox.

2015

5 pages; International audience; Size-assortative pairing is one of the most common pairing patterns observed in nature and it probably occurs in many taxa with cryptic diversity. Observed patterns of size-assortative pairing in natural populations may thus be influenced by the co-occurrence of noninterbreeding cryptic groups of individuals living in sympatry. To quantify this potential bias, we sampled amphipods from the Gammarus pulex/Gammarus fossarum crustacean species complex in rivers containing two sympatric and morphologically cryptic groups, i.e. molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs). Within each river, MOTUs did not interbreed and differed in mean body size. We measured th…

Preoperative evaluation before MitraClip®: present and future perspective.

2014

ABSTRACT  Mitral regurgitation (MR) is the second most common heart valve disease worldwide. Currently, the management of MR is based on medical therapy (including biventricular pacing), surgery (mitral valve replacement or repair) and percutaneous therapy. However, in spite of guideline recommendations, 50% of individuals assessed in the Euro Heart Survey were not referred to surgical intervention due to comorbidities or real or perceived high risks for cardiac surgery; thus, in recent years, the focus of research has shifted to the development of percutaneous approaches to treat severe MR in order to restore valve function in a minimally invasive fashion. Among these techniques, the perc…